Our town has paid little attention to build-out scenarios, long-term costs and risks. The driving assumption that development is always revenue positive needs to be challenged. Two analyses - the Cost of Community Services study, and an examination of single-family housing to single family taxation trends, strongly suggests development is not always revenue positive. (Please see the section Costs to Taxpayers for further information about these two studies). A growth management study should lay this issue to rest.

Fiscal impact analyses require elements such as estimating population generated by development (number of new residents, children, seniors, etc.); estimating the public services the new population will need, the costs of those services (roads, sewer, water, etc.) and anticipated tax revenues; and comparing costs to revenues. 

Pepperell can learn from other towns. Central Mass Regional Planning Commission conducted a fiscal impact study for the town of Rutland, because of 400 approved residential units, and more in the pipeline. Earlier, Rutland had failed to pass a Rate of Development Bylaw but then, under development pressure, the town conducted a growth management study. Rutland acknowledged learning a valuable lesson: planning after the fact is never a good idea. The town then went on to pass a Rate of Development Bylaw.

For ease of use, Rutland used the Average Costing Method, which aggregates the costs of all public services, and averages them out on a per household or housing unit basis.  The analysis is expressed as a cost to expenditure ratio. The 400-unit buildout was a net loss to the town. Rutland then went on to examine zoning and town services to meet this growth. Planning before zoning is smart planning. 

Regional planning bodies are being asked to re-envision growth. In this context, NMCOG has just published an assessment of regional transportation called Envision 2050. The Central Mass Regional Planning Commission is preparing a region-wide build-out analysis and scenario planning exercise.  And the State, as we know, is using a carrot and stick approach to affordable housing through 40R. Taken together, these are enormous pressures on small towns to build themselves out.

Pepperell is not an MBTA community which means we can chart our own course. We can grow the way we want to grow and can afford to grow. But we must use planning tools to make those decisions.