There are two goals of the Rate of Development Bylaw. The first is to cap market rate housing to incentivize builders to build affordable housing.  Please see the section on Affordable Housing for a snapshot of where we are, and a discussion of how challenging it is to meet the State’s 10% affordable housing goal. A more realistic target is to understand local market demand for affordable housing and build to that demand. That information can be acquired through a growth management planning process.

The second goal is to produce a growth management plan. The town has produced at least five plans within the past five years spanning capital planning, housing, to general development. Multiple zoning proposals have been put forward, including by-right development, and streetscape design guidelines. None protect Pepperell citizens from over-development because the plans are missing key pieces: build-out analyses and fiscal impact analyses.

The first attempt at a build-out analysis can be found in Pepperell’s 1998-99 Master Plan. The 2007 interim update by Koff & Associates does not address build-out scenarios, nor does the current Master Plan.  In the early stages of the 40R Bylaw development, NMCOG provided the planning board with a brief build-out of five proposed sites for 40R development in which it estimated total buildouts for each identified site based on buildable square footage. This analysis spoke to density, but it did not include other concerns: traffic impacts and weekday/weekend trip generation, infrastructure improvements, climate risks (flooding and heat), parking, water demand, wastewater flow, existing land and building values, existing dwelling units, and maximum potential for residential, commercial and (if applicable) light industrial units. In short, build-out analyses are intended to provide a current baseline description and future build-out capacity. Given that we are discussing future capacity, build-out scenarios have a long-time frame.

A companion piece to build-out analyses are strategic planning areas. These areas identify where the town wants development. Strategic planning areas can be small historic villages, industrial parks, downtowns, and so on. The number of proposed town center zoning efforts, complete streets, and rotary planning suggests the Town Center is a strategic planning area. A complete build-out analysis, however, has not been done.

What will a build-out cost the town and the taxpayer? Fiscal impact analyses weigh anticipated revenues against estimated costs of town services. These analyses can be applied to specific development sites, specific projects or a more comprehensive approach looking at multiple strategic planning areas, or multiple towns in an entire region.

These are the planning pieces we need before zoning decisions are made.