The town’s focus on revenues must be counterbalanced by an analysis of community services expenses.

For context, we provide information from the Dept. of Revenue looking at the town’s revenues and tax rates from 2010 to 2021. See Documents section below. While the town’s population has not seen substantial grown, its costs have continued to rise along with its taxes. Growth poses challenges: Will growth make Pepperell LESS affordable to live in for us all, or more affordable? Will more people reduce our tax burden, or increase it? And what will be the impact on our resources and rural character?

We look to an analysis of the three kinds of land uses - residential, commercial/industrial, and open space(including agricultural land) - cost of community services data. The COCS studies have been around for decades and many local towns (and some of our neighbors) have completed this study to provide insights about tax costs related to local land planning. COCS studies have consistently shown residential growth is a net loss due to the expenses of providing community services.

We know the following for FY 2023: single family residential assessed valuations increased 16.4%. The residential tax rate declined from 17.15 to 15.15 (dollars per thousand) but revenues will increase due to property valuations. (We have focused on residential taxes because Pepperell’s revenue base is almost entirely residential (90%+)). Is the steady increase in property taxes making Pepperell a less affordable town for residents on fixed incomes and young working families, for example?

As a demonstration of the problem, here is a link to an analysis done by a former local resident using DOR data to look at the average single family tax bill from 1988 to present.

“Since 1988 we’ve added 1048 single family homes, an increase of 49%.

Over that same period home values increased 31%, adjusted for inflation (using CPI calculator)

And, over that same period the average household tax increased 82%, adjusted for inflation.

Using single family homes as a proxy for all residential units* and population, it’s pretty evident we are paying more taxes per household now than in the past (even adjusted for inflation). In statistical terms, there is a strong correlation (.88) between total household growth and per household tax growth. Notice I am not talking about total taxes increasing as homes increase - that is obvious. I am talking about per household tax increasing as more houses are added. *The state doesn't track condos and multifamily units and taxes from 1988 but as of 2021 they account for less than 9% of all units.

The chart suggests that new homes do not pay for themselves tax-wise to cover the town’s overall servicing costs, and the gap is being closed by existing residents. However, what I don’t know is whether there are other variables contributing to that increase.”

Town infrastructure is another consideration. Our town water is contaminated with PFAS at two of our three well sites. The town has approved $23 million to build a water treatment plant at the Jersey Street well site, and build a water transmission line from Dunstable to Pepperell to bring Dunstable water (which is in a different watershed basin) to our town. Flooding events and heavy precipitation also impact our roads, bridges and culverts. Please see the section on environmental hazards to read more on this topic.

We must better understand the short term and long term costs of growth. And, at the end of the day, how do we know when enough is enough? Can’t we discuss a plan before we act?